# US Market Briefing | October 28, 2026: A Fed Pause and a Big Tech Split

Some trading days are not over when the closing notification arrives. October 28 was one of them. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 finished the regular session higher, and the Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged. After the bell, however, Microsoft and Alphabet moved in opposite directions. Even within the same artificial-intelligence investment story, investors were drawing distinctions between companies.

The useful way to read this session is to move through three layers: how much ground stocks recovered, whether an unchanged policy rate actually made financing conditions easier, and what earnings and fund flows reveal beneath the index averages. The green numbers at the close tell only part of the story.

*This briefing covers the October 28, 2026 US equity session. Research cutoff: October 29 at 08:42 KST, equivalent to October 28 at 19:42 EDT. After-hours, futures and currency observations have separate timestamps below. Extended trading had not finished at the cutoff.*

## A recovery with an uneven monthly record

| Market | Observed level | Versus prior daily record | Five-session change | Twenty-session change |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| S&P 500, regular close | 7,743.98 | +0.28% | −0.17% | +1.21% |
| Nasdaq-100, regular close | 29,813.16 | +0.55% | −0.03% | −1.96% |
| December 2026 gold futures, USD/troy oz | 4,064.10 | −0.26% | −2.07% | −2.93% |
| December 2026 silver futures, USD/troy oz | 53.910 | −1.11% | −6.58% | −10.99% |
| DXY dollar index | 102.155 | −0.16% | +0.37% | +0.69% |

Equities use the 16:00 EDT regular close. The provider timestamps for gold, silver and DXY are October 28 at 19:27:39, 19:27:47 and 18:04:58 EDT, respectively. In Korea, those are approximately 08:27, 08:27 and 07:04 the next morning. **The metals prices are post-settlement overnight observations, not spot prices or official October 28 settlements.** Their changes, and DXY's, compare these snapshots with the same provider's earlier daily records. The five- and twenty-session baselines are October 21 and September 30.

The S&P close was checked against [AP's closing figures](https://apnews.com/article/7864eac2e13db75f07758ed9c39ad96b), and the Nasdaq-100 against its [historical index series](https://www.investing.com/indices/nq-100-historical-data). Calculations use observed Yahoo Finance daily data. Metals use the specific December contracts, GCZ26.CMX and SIZ26.CMX, throughout, avoiding a mixture of expiries.

![Twenty-session comparison rebased to September 30 = 100: S&P 500 +1.21%, Nasdaq-100 −1.96%, December gold −2.93%, December silver −10.99%, DXY +0.69%. Final metals and DXY points are timestamped overnight quotes, as explained in the article.](/briefing-assets/us-market-briefing-2026-10-28.en.51c5fa7e2156.png)

*Twenty-one observations, rebased to September 30 = 100. The panels have different vertical scales. Metals and DXY end with the timestamped observations above; earlier points are the provider's daily records. These are neither synchronized market closes nor ETF total returns. Original data links appear in the source list.*

The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.55% for the day but had only returned close to its level five sessions earlier. Over twenty sessions it remained down 1.96%, while the S&P 500 was up 1.21%. Technology's strength on Wednesday should not be confused with uninterrupted leadership over the month. For an index investor, the amount of lost ground recovered can be more informative than one day's gain.

## The Fed paused; long-term borrowing costs did not

At 14:00 EDT, the Fed held its target range at **3.75–4.00%**, voting 10–2. Both dissenters preferred a quarter-point increase. Its assessment combined strong economic activity with still-elevated inflation. The statement did not commit to a particular decision at the next meeting. [FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm)

[Reuters' closing report](https://www.schwab.wallst.com/schwab/Prospect/research/stocks/news.asp?doc=3200-nL6N46E1B6-4&symbol=MSFT) described the hold as widely expected. Stocks finishing higher after the decision is an observed sequence, but it does not establish that unexpected monetary easing caused the entire advance. Keeping the policy rate unchanged and making credit cheaper are different things.

| Treasury par yield | October 27 | October 28 | Change |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Two-year | 4.70% | 4.67% | −3bp |
| Ten-year | 4.99% | 5.05% | +6bp |
| Ten-year minus two-year | 0.29 percentage points | 0.38 percentage points | +9bp |

These [US Treasury figures](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026) are derived from indicative quotations around 15:30 EDT on each business day, rather than individual transaction prices. A basis point is 0.01 percentage points: the ten-year increase was 0.06 percentage points, not 6%.

The split between shorter and longer maturities matters. It argues against describing the whole bond market as relieved. Rising market yields generally put downward pressure on existing bond prices, and higher long-term discount rates can also weigh on the present value of companies' distant earnings.

Growth expectations, future inflation and compensation for committing money for longer are possible influences. This day's observations do not isolate their contributions. A beginner holding a bond ETF should therefore ask which maturities it owns before treating a Fed hold as a reason its price must rise. The policy announcement alone cannot answer that question.

## AI growth received two different verdicts

Both companies released results on October 28 for quarters ending September 30. Microsoft calls this fiscal 2027's first quarter; Alphabet calls it 2026's third quarter. The reporting labels differ, but the quarter-end date is the same.

| Reported measure | Microsoft | Alphabet |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Quarterly revenue | $92.3bn, +19% year on year | $127.6bn, +25% |
| Cloud growth measure | Azure revenue +48% | Google Cloud revenue +103% |
| Diluted EPS | GAAP $4.92 / adjusted $4.89 | GAAP $2.12, versus $2.87 a year earlier |

Sources: [Microsoft's release](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast) and [Alphabet's filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm). The cloud businesses have different scopes, so their growth rates do not directly establish market-share leadership. Microsoft's adjusted EPS excludes the effects of its OpenAI investments.

MSFT's regular close was $531.01; GOOGL's was $324.89. Subsequent observations were $544.53 and $292.6835, respectively—**+2.55% and −9.91% versus those closes**. The [MSFT observation](https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MSFT?range=1d&interval=5m&includePrePost=true) was timestamped 19:36:53 EDT and the [GOOGL observation](https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GOOGL?range=1d&interval=5m&includePrePost=true) 19:37:00 EDT. These were still-running after-hours snapshots, equivalent to 08:36:53 and 08:37:00 KST on October 29.

Alphabet illustrates why revenue growth alone cannot settle the investment question: sales rose substantially while earnings per share fell. Expanding demand, profit left after costs, and the capital required to support future growth are separate questions. The price divergence does not identify a single number as its cause. It does show that investors were assigning different values to companies within the same broad AI narrative.

Diversified index investors are affected too. An ETF can spread company-specific exposure without eliminating shared sensitivity to growth expectations or financing costs. Wednesday's regular-session index returns also do not incorporate the subsequent reactions to these earnings releases. Mixing the two time windows would obscure the very distinction that made the evening important.

## A softer dollar did not erase the metals' losses

DXY was 0.16% below its previous daily record but remained higher over five and twenty sessions. A statement that the dollar weakened needs a time horizon. DXY measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies; it is not USD/KRW. A Korean investor's translated return still depends on won-per-dollar movements and whether currency exposure is hedged.

At the stated observation times, December gold and silver were down 2.93% and 10.99% over twenty sessions. Silver's larger decline makes a simple inverse-dollar explanation insufficient. Higher yields can change the appeal of interest-bearing assets relative to metals, while silver can also respond to expectations for industrial demand.

Those are possible transmission channels, not a measured decomposition of Wednesday's move. The observations are not simultaneous either. Before declaring that a familiar relationship has broken down, compare the horizon, contract and timestamp. Likewise, a futures-based fund can depart from a spot-metal chart because of contract rolls and costs. The chart shows the specified contracts' prices, not a promised return from owning an ETF.

## Less anxiety, but an uneven appetite for risk

[Cboe's VIX](https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix) declined from 17.52 to 16.91. That indicates lower near-term volatility expectations embedded in S&P 500 options, not a guarantee that stocks will keep rising.

Breadth adds a second perspective. Reuters counted 1.05 advancing stocks for each decliner on the NYSE and 1.48 on Nasdaq. Participation was more positive on Nasdaq, while the NYSE was close to balanced. Combined with the lower VIX, this suggests a willingness to take risk, but provides weaker support for a claim of market-wide enthusiasm.

Capital flows run on a different clock. [ICI's October 28 release](https://www.ici.org/research/stats/combined_flows) covers the **week ending October 21**. Combined long-term mutual funds and ETFs recorded estimated equity inflows of $13.892bn and bond outflows of $166mn. Across all categories, ETF net issuance was $45.82bn, while long-term mutual funds had $33.50bn of net outflows.

These are estimated net flows and issuance, rather than an increase in assets caused merely by rising prices. They are not trades made in response to Wednesday's Fed announcement, nor do they identify an individual investor's or pension fund's orders. Simultaneous ETF growth and mutual-fund outflows also do not prove that the same investors switched between the two. Weekly allocation evidence belongs beside daily prices, but should not be turned into a causal story without further evidence.

## Two questions for the next session

The [BEA calendar](https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule) schedules the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 08:30 EDT, or 21:30 KST that day. Neither had been released at this briefing's cutoff. The first question is whether growth and PCE inflation reinforce the Fed's assessment. Strong growth alongside persistent inflation could sustain rate concerns; cooling inflation with resilient activity could invite a different interpretation.

The second is whether the split between the two companies survives into the next regular session. Fresh economic data may change the interest-rate backdrop against which the same earnings are valued. For a new investor, separating the reported facts from the market's first response is a useful step before converting an eye-catching morning price change into a trading decision.

This briefing is educational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security.

## Sources
- https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars
- https://apnews.com/article/7864eac2e13db75f07758ed9c39ad96b
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
- https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
- https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm
- https://www.schwab.wallst.com/schwab/Prospect/research/stocks/news.asp?doc=3200-nL6N46E1B6-4&symbol=MSFT
- https://www.ici.org/research/stats/combined_flows
- https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
- https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix
- https://www.investing.com/indices/nq-100-historical-data
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5EGSPC?range=3mo&interval=1d
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5ENDX?range=3mo&interval=1d
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GCZ26.CMX?range=3mo&interval=1d
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/SIZ26.CMX?range=3mo&interval=1d
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/DX-Y.NYB?range=3mo&interval=1d
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MSFT?range=1d&interval=5m&includePrePost=true
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GOOGL?range=1d&interval=5m&includePrePost=true